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| | | Poker Odds | | | | | When working with odds and probabilities, you will be required to know at least some elementary algebra. Now, while I might have sympathy for those who are bad at math and don't like to do it - if you're playing poker and have a grudge against math, then this game is not for you. If you simply want to memorize your odds for each type of hand, so be it, but the person who can calculate poker odds on the fly will be a far better player in the long run. | | | Hand Odds and Poker Odds | | | Hand odds are the chances of you making a hand in texas hold'em poker. For example, if you hold two hearts and there are two hearts on the flop, your hand odds for making a flush are about 2 to 1. This means that for approximately every 3 times you play this hand, you will hit your flush one of those times. If your hand odds are 3 to 1, then you would hit your hand 1 out of every 4 times. | | | | X to 1 odds = You hit your hand 1 out of (X + 1) times | | X to 1 odds = 1 / (X + 1) = % chace to hit your hand | | | | | | Outs | Flop% | Turn% | Flop Odds | Turn Odds | Draw Type | | 2 | 8% | 4% | 12 | 22 | Pocket Pair -> Set | | 3 | 13% | 7% | 7 | 14 | Single Overcard Draw | | 4 | 17% | 9% | 5 | 10 | Gut Shot, Two Pair -> Full House | | 5 | 20% | 11% | 4 | 8 | One Pair -> Two Pair or Set, Gut+Backdoor | | 6 | 24% | 13% | 3.2 | 6.7 | No Pair -> Pair, Two Overcard Draw | | 7 | 28% | 15% | 2.6 | 5.6 | Set -> Full House or + (not counting extra turn outs) | | 8 | 32% | 17% | 2.2 | 4.7 | Open Straight Draw | | 9 | 35% | 19% | 1.9 | 4.1 | Flush Draw, Open+Backdoor Draw | | 10 | 38% | 22% | 1.6 | 3.6 | | | 11 | 42% | 24% | 1.4 | 3.2 | | | 12 | 45% | 26% | 1.2 | 2.8 | Flush+Gut Draw | | 13 | 48% | 28% | 1.1 | 2.5 | | | 14 | 51% | 30% | 0.95 | 2.3 | | | 15 | 54% | 33% | 0.85 | 2.1 | Flush+Open Draw | | 16 | 57% | 34% | 0.75 | 1.9 | Flush+Open+One Overcard | | 17 | 60% | 37% | 0.66 | 1.7 | | | | | [ The above chart represents your percentage and odds of hitting an out by the river ] | | | To calculate your hand odds, you first need to know how many outs your hand has. Outs are defined as a card in the deck that help you make your hand. So if you hold AK of spades and have two spades on the flop, that leaves 9 more spades in the deck, since there are 13 cards of each suit. This means you have 9 outs to complete your flush - but not necessarily the best hand! Usually you want your outs to count toward a nut draw, but this is not always possible. | | | The quick amongst you might be wondering "But what if someone else is holding a spade, doesn't that decrease my outs?". The answer is yes and no. If you know for sure that someone else is holding a spade, then you will have to count that against your total odds. However, in most situations when you do not know what your opponents hold, you can only do calculations with the knowledge that is available to you. That knowledge is your pocket cards and the cards on the table. So, in essence, you are doing the calculations as if you were the only person at the table, which in case, there are 9 spades left in the deck. | | | When calculating outs, it's also important not to overcount your odds. An example would be a flush draw in addition to an open straight draw. | |
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